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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
06/2157Z from Region 3299 (S06E42). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 06/2120Z. Total IMF reached 19
nT at 07/1453Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
07/1453Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 142 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (08 May), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (09 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (10 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 157 Predicted 08 May-10 May 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 07 May 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 021/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 036/055-019/024-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 45% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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