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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 06/2157Z from Region 3299 (S06E42). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 06/2120Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 07/1453Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/1453Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 142 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (08 May), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (09 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
Class M55%55%55%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 May 157
  Predicted   08 May-10 May 160/160/160
  90 Day Mean        07 May 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  021/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 May  013/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  036/055-019/024-013/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%40%25%
Minor storm35%25%10%
Major-severe storm40%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm65%45%20%

All times in UTC

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