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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
02/2242Z from Region 3323 (S07E45). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 465 km/s at 03/1108Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
03/0533Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/0806Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 319 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jun,
05 Jun, 06 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| Class M | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 165 Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 165/160/160 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 008/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 011/015-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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