Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 June 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
04/0345Z from Region 3323 (S07E20). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (05 Jun, 06 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (07 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 04/2016Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 04/1702Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
04/1714Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 328 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Jun, 06 Jun)
and quiet levels on day three (07 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (05 Jun, 06
Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 168 Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 163/160/160 90 Day Mean 04 Jun 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 011/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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