Viewing archive of Friday, 30 June 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
30/1003Z from Region 3354 (N13W30). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul,
03 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 30/1403Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 29/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2632 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (03 Jul).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 159 Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 013/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 012/015-008/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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