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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 30/1003Z from Region 3354 (N13W30). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 30/1403Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2632 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (03 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jun 159
  Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul 160/160/160
  90 Day Mean        30 Jun 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  013/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jun  007/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  012/015-008/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%15%
Minor storm15%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm30%20%10%

All times in UTC

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