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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
18/1353Z from Region 3336 (S22E17). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 17/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 18/1710Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/1714Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3835 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Jun, 20 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Jun). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20
Jun, 21 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 164 Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 160/155/160 90 Day Mean 18 Jun 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 009/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 011/012-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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