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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/0350Z from Region 3341 (S13E62). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 19/1616Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 19/1113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/0836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Jun, 21 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 169 Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 19 Jun 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 011/014-011/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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