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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/1622Z from Region 3340 (N20W45). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 646 km/s at 25/2210Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 25/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
26/1350Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 583 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (28 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (29 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 158 Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 010/012-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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