Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 June 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
27/1514Z from Region 3340 (N23W58). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 577 km/s at 27/0142Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 27/1945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/0135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2111 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30
Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 151 Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 155/155/150 90 Day Mean 27 Jun 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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