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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
02/2314Z from Region 3354 (N16W58). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05
Jul, 06 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 476 km/s at 03/2016Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
03/0612Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/1830Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3083 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Jul, 05 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (06 Jul). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 173 Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 03 Jul 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 008/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 009/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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