Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/1235Z from Region 3354 (N16W87). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (05 Jul) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on days two and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 412 km/s at 04/0337Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
03/2200Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/2356Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3264 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (05 Jul, 06 Jul) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (07 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 167 Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 165/160/160 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 006/005-006/005-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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