Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
04/2339Z from Region 3361 (N23E45). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (06 Jul) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (07 Jul) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class or X-class flare
on day three (08 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 629 km/s at 05/1030Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 05/2032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/1353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3583 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Jul), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (07 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day three (08
Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| Class M | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 154 Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 05 Jul 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 006/005-016/020-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 35% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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