Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 July 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Jul 05 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Jul 2023	163	007
06 Jul 2023	161	008
07 Jul 2023	161	032

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with one M-class flare and several C-class flares being detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was a M1.5 flare, peaking at 12:35 UTC on July 04, associated with NOAA AR 3354. This region, which is rotating off the solar disk, was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. Isolated C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3358 (beta class) and by NOAA AR 3359 (beta-gamma class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with a small chance for isolated X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections

Solar coronal dimming was observed on July 04, starting at around 02:12 UTC and ending around 04:09 UTC. The coronal dimming was located close to the Sunspot region NOAA AR 3359. A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME), associated to the dimming, was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 04:12 UTC on July 04. The CME is directed to the south-east and is estimated to give a glancing blow to Earth's environment either late on July 06 or early on July 07. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters were reflecting slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed ranged between 345 - 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 5 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -3 nT and 2 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail until late on July 06, with a low chance of a weak enhancement on July 05, if solar wind from a small equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity arrives to the Earth. From late on July 06 – early on July 07, solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly elevated due to the possible arrival of the CME from July 04, which was predicted to have a glancing blow at Earth. On July 07 – 08, the high speed stream associated with the coronal hole of positive polarity currently facing Earth may arrive.

Geomagnetism

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at mostly quiet levels until July 06, increasing to active conditions, with isolated minor or moderate storm periods from late on July 06 - early on July 07, due to a possible arrival of the CME from July 04 and expected high speed stream arrival.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton was at the nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10 pfu threshold over the next day, with a small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare or a coronal mass ejection.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold for a short period. It is expected to remain close to the threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and it is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 135, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Jul 2023

Wolf number Catania	171
10cm solar flux	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	136 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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