Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 August 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Aug 01 1320 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Aug 2023	181	013
02 Aug 2023	181	020
03 Aug 2023	181	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with six M-class flares, all produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3380. The strongest reported flare was GOES C3.6 flare which peaked at 06:57 UTC today. During the flare, the source region (AR 3380) of the flare had beta-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Several C-class flares ranging from C2 to C6 were also produced in the last 24 hours: the brightest C6-class flare was produced by an un-numbered NOAA AR region. For the next 24 hours, we are expecting several C-class flares and one or more M-class flare from NOAA AR 3390. There are very likely a small chance of an X-flare.

Coronal mass ejections

Three subsequent coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the SOHOS/LASCO C2 field of view around 00:12 UT on Aug 01. The first CME was observed with its main component in the NE direction and is believed to be a back-sided event. The second CME observed at SE of the solar disk is a partial halo with an angular width of about 120 degrees and a projected speed of about 300 km/s (as detected and measured by the Cactus tool). This CME is associated with the filament eruption near the central meridian. The third CME is related the NOAA AR 3392 activity which is more towards the east and away from the Earth. No Earth directed component Coronal mass ejection (CME) has been identified in the available coronograph imagery.

Coronal holes

An equatorial (negative polarity) coronal hole has reached the central meridian today. The solar wind from this coronal hole is expected to enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on 3 and 4 Aug.

Solar wind

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime, ranging from 300 km/s to 590 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -5 and 3 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 1 nT to 6 nT. The solar wind speed may increase with the expected coronal mass ejection arriving later today at Earth.

Geomagnetism

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet. NOAA reported Kp 1 to 2 and K BEL reported 3 for few shorter intervals. we expect to see active or minor storm conditions when the expected coronal mass ejection arrive at Earth.

Proton flux levels

The 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at normal to moderate level. It is that this parameter to remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 184, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 31 Jul 2023

Wolf number Catania	223
10cm solar flux	177
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	183 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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