Viewing archive of Monday, 14 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/0242Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 14/0608Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/0134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/1156Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1252 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 154 Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 006/005-009/012-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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