Viewing archive of Monday, 14 August 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Aug 14 1242 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Aug 2023	148	006
15 Aug 2023	145	004
16 Aug 2023	144	015

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. There are 6 numbered regions on the solar disk. NOAA AR 3395 was most active producing a number of low level C-class flares. NOAA AR 3403 exhibited some minor growth. NOAA AR 3394 is expected to rotate off the disk over the next hours. Two new sunspots have rotated onto the disk over the east limb, one of which in the south east has been numbered NOAA AR 3404, both regions appear small and simple. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a low chance for isolated M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

A small filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 form 19:40 UTC August 13 located around S30E43. A weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is then also seen in LASCO C2 to the south-east. This eruption is currently being analysed to see if there could be a possible Earth directed component. There were no other Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Coronal holes

A positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere and a negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere began to transit the central meridian on August 12 and 13, respectively.

Solar wind

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 1 nT and 5 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -4nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 330 and 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards from the Sun). Over the next 24 hours, the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind speed are expected continue to reflect a slow solar wind regime. A slight enhancement in the solar wind speed could be expected from August 16 in response to the solar wind associated with the positive coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on August 12.

Geomagnetism

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels globally (NOAA KP 1-2), with some local unsettled intervals (K-Bel 0-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on August 14 and 15. Active conditions may be possible from August 16.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron oscillated around 1000 pfu threshold, crossing this threshold for a short period. It is expected to continue to exceed this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal to moderate levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal to moderate levels for the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 117, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Aug 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	101 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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