Viewing archive of Friday, 18 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
18/1930Z from Region 3409 (N20W42). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 18/1246Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 18/0208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
18/0723Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 150 Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 150/152/155 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 010/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 010/010-008/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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