Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
19/0648Z from Region 3410 (S30W75). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 19/0741Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 19/1939Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/1904Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 193 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (20 Aug, 21 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (22 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 151 Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 150/153/153 90 Day Mean 19 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 014/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 008/008-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/07 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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