Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
03/0940Z from Region 3450 (S19W10). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct,
06 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 03/1947Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/1948Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
03/1138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1297 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Oct, 06
Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (05 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 154 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 008/008-013/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 55% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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