Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
04/0952Z from Region 3453 (N07W29). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct,
07 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 04/0846Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 04/0449Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
04/1920Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 201 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06
Oct, 07 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 155 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 160/162/162 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 009/012-010/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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