Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
03/2238Z from Region 3480 (S11E64). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov,
07 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 04/1024Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 04/1739Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 04/1721Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 9842 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Nov), unsettled
to major storm levels on day two (06 Nov) and quiet to active levels on
day three (07 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 155 Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 155/155/150 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 009/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 018/025-020/030-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/07 | M2.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 160.1 +7.7 |