Viewing archive of Friday, 1 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/0439Z from Region 3502 (N14W81). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 01/1443Z. Total IMF
reached 28 nT at 01/1022Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-26 nT at 01/1020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 324 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (02 Dec), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (03 Dec) and unsettled to major storm levels
on day three (04 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 162 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 162/158/155 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 039/058 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 022/028-008/010-024/033
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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