Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/1058Z from Region 3533 (N14W38). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Maximum solar wind
speed was not available given unreliable observations from the real time
solar wind source. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2240Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 28/1617Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 363 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 Dec,
30 Dec, 31 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 147 Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 008/005-009/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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