Viewing archive of Friday, 10 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
10/1604Z from Region 3477 (S15W53). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 697 km/s at 10/0538Z. Protons greater than
10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
10/0015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3914 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (11 Nov), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (12 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (13 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (11 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 144 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 145/150/145 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 019/030-019/030-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 30% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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