Viewing archive of Friday, 10 November 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Nov 10 1250 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Nov 2023	134	010
11 Nov 2023	130	008
12 Nov 2023	126	026

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C1.9-flare, with peak time 16:15 UTC on November 09, associated with NOAA AR 3477 (beta). Only 3 C-class flares have been detected in the last 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3478 has rotate over the West limb. NOAA AR 3484 (beta) has grown in size. NOAA AR 3482 has turned into a plage region. All other active regions have remained relatively stable and were mostly quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible.

Coronal mass ejections

A full halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at 11:24 UTC on November 09, in LASCO C2 data, with an estimated speed of around 700 km/s. The CME is associated with an eruption, observed at 10:49 UTC on November 09, in SDO/AIA 304 and 193 close to the centre of the visible solar disk. This was associated with a C2.6-flare, with peak time 11:18 UTC on November 09, associated with NOAA AR 3480 (beta). The CME is expected to impact Earth around 12 UTC on November 12.

Coronal holes

A high latitude small positive polarity coronal hole is passing the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. Another low latitude small positive polarity coronal hole has started to pass the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. We do not expect a significant impact from high-speed streams associated with either one of these coronal holes.

Solar wind

In the last 24 hours, the Earth continued to be under the waning influence of a high-speed stream associated with a negative polarity coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field gradually decreased from 5 nT to 2 nT. The Bz fluctuated between positive and negative values with a minimum value of - 4 nT. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE, which is only available starting from 03:35 UTC on November 10, decreased from around 690 km/s and 565 km/s. The DISCOVR data shows the solar wind speed to be around 480 km/s but has been marked as unreliable. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually decrease over the next 24 hours, due to the waning influence of the high-speed stream.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active conditions globally (Kp 4-) and reached unsettled conditions locally (K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhanced but remains under the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. The enhancement was likely associated with the CME detected in LASCO C2 at 11:24 UTC on November 09.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 was above the 1000 pfu threshold. The electron flux is expected to continue to be at or above the threshold level in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 097, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	135
10cm solar flux	139
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	106 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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