Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 November 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Nov 23 1252 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Nov 2023	190	008
24 Nov 2023	220	014
25 Nov 2023	270	016

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. Recurrent NOAA Active Region (AR) 3474 is about to rotate on-disk, exhibiting flaring activity while a filament eruption in the area is visible. From the large cluster of ARs on the NE, NOAA AR 3492 has developed further, but with the cluster being is fairly stable. NOAA AR 3484 is believed to be the source of the flare with the highest output in X-ray over the past 24 hours, the M1.5 flare, which peaked at 23 November 03:38 UT. A new sunspot group emerged in the south-west quadrant (Catania sunspot group 60, NOAA AR 3498).

Coronal mass ejections

A full halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was seen in Lasco C2 on 22 November 21:12UT and reported by Cactus. Analysis shows that it may consist of two concurrent CMEs. Two fronts appear visible, one with a SE orientation, possibly associated with activity seen in active region NOAA 3489 and a second front with SW orientation, with an unknown source. ICME arrival is estimated to be about early 26 November. A second full halo CME was reported by Cactus, seen in Lasco on 23 November 03:36UT. It consists of a succession of what is believed to be back-sided CMEs, combined with a CME probably associated with a filament eruption from recurrent NOAA Active Region 3474. These are currently not believed to have an Earth-directed component.

Coronal holes

A mid latitude coronal hole positive coronal hole is currently crossing central meridian.

Solar wind

High speed stream influences have been waning, with solar wind parameters returning to slow wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field dropped to 2 nT, remaining in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Solar wind speed has dropped to about 440km/s. Over the next 2 hours solar wind conditions are expected to return towards background levels. High speed stream influences and a slight chance of a glancing blow from CME on 22/11 06:48UT can be expected about 25 November.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions reached active conditions(NOAA Kp and K BEL 4) over the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux crossed the 1000 pfu threshold on 22 November 22:20UT, as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to be at moderate levels in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was close to moderate levels, it is expected be at moderate levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 198, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	190
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	034
Estimated Ap	032
Estimated international sunspot number	167 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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