Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
24/2219Z from Region 3490 (N20W03). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Nov, 27 Nov,
28 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 613 km/s at 25/2054Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 25/0830Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 25/0827Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 329 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (27 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (28 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 176 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 175/175/175 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 023/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 018/025-015/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 194.5 +28.1 |
| Last 30 days | 160.1 +7.7 |