Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
26/0743Z from Region 3490 (N22W27). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov,
29 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 626 km/s at 25/2152Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 25/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
26/0040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 107 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (28 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (29 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Nov 180 Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 26 Nov 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 018/030 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 010/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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