Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 November 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Nov 26 1249 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Nov 2023	176	007
27 Nov 2023	169	014
28 Nov 2023	163	005

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. There are twelve Active Regions (AR) present on-disk, which have been rather stable during the reported period. NOAA AR 3503 was the source of the flare with the highest output in X-ray over the past 24 hours, the C4.4 flare, which peaked at 25 November 14:39 UT. Catania group 60 (NOAA AR 3498) has rotated off-disk and Catania group 62 (NOAA AR 3489) is on the western limb.

Coronal mass ejections

Over the past 24 hour period, two events are of particular interest. First, an eruption seen in SDO/AIA at NOAA AR 3499 at 26 November 05:45UT. There appears to be ejecta, but more data are needed to determine and analyse any associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Second, a flare C3.6 peaked at 26 November 07:40UT, with source origin NOAA AR 3490, seen in SDO/AIA. At 07:47UT, type II and type IV radio emissions were recorded. Both events will be further analysed as more data become available.

Coronal holes

There is one coronal hole present centre-disk, the mid latitude positive polarity coronal hole.

Solar wind

Solar wind parameters reflect the waning influence of the ICME reported yesterday as well as the influence of the high speed stream emanating from the mid latitudinal positive polarity coronal hole that crossed central meridian on 23rd November. It is not clear whether the second ICME (from the CME occurring at 22nd November 21:12UT) that was expected early 26 November has arrived or whether the event missed Earth. There is a small chance of an ICME arrival early 27 November, from the CME that took place at 24 November 10:00 UT.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions reach moderate storm levels (NOAA Kp and local K BEL 6) at 25th November 21:00UT, due to combined effects of an ICME arrival and high speed stream influences. These are expected to gradually decrease. Mainly unsettled, with a small chance of active conditions can be expected in the case of an ICME arrival early 27 November.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below threshold and is expected to most likely remain so over the next 24 hours, but keeping in mind the presence of multiple magnetically complex regions on disk.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours, as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours, it is expected to remain at normal levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 171, based on 02 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	176
AK Chambon La Forêt	051
AK Wingst	042
Estimated Ap	043
Estimated international sunspot number	184 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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