Viewing archive of Monday, 27 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
27/1852Z from Region 3500 (S20E08). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov,
30 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 507 km/s at 26/2128Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
26/2339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/1834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Nov), quiet to active
levels on day two (29 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (30 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 187 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 185/182/182 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov NA/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 005/006-008/010-024/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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