Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
30/1520Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 451 km/s at 29/2145Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
29/2331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
30/1027Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 299 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 140 Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 145/140/135 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 009/010-011/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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