Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 December 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Dec 30 1256 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Dec 2023	142	005
31 Dec 2023	140	009
01 Jan 2024	140	030

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity remained at low levels. There are only five numbered active regions on the visible disc, most of them in the western hemisphere. The strongest activity was marked by a C3.2 flare, peak time 07:47 UTC on Dec 30th, produced by NOAA AR 3530 (beta). This region was responsible for all the notable flaring activity over the past 24 hour as it approaches the west limb. NOAA AR 3529 has now rotated behind the west limb and has been quiet. The remaining regions on disc have been mostly stable and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the coming days with probable C-class flares and low chances for isolated M-class flaring.

Coronal mass ejections

A large filament eruption is visible in the SDO/AIA images from UTC morning till UTC late afternoon on Dec 29th. Despite the big eruption, no related coronal mass ejection (CME) is visible in the available coronagraph imagery. Another filament eruption with clear on- disc signatures is observed in the south-east quadrant after 08:00 UTC on Dec 30th. Preliminary analysis suggested no foreseen impact on Earth, but further coronagraph data is awaited for further analysis of any potential Earth-directed component or the related CME. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Coronal holes

The large negative polarity equatorial coronal hole and now extended to high latitudes and the high latitude parts of it continue to reside on the central meridian. The high speed stream related to this coronal hole could arrive to Earth on Dec 31st or Jan 1st and is expected to last for several days.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained mildly disturbed by an ICME arrival, most probably related to the weak slow partial halo CME from Dec 25th. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 336 to 426 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 11.8 nT with a minimum Bz of -4.8 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions in the next 24 hours are expected to return to nominal solar wind conditions and be disturbed on Dec 31st, Jan 1st and Jan 2nd with an anticipated high speed stream arrival from a large negative polarity coronal hole.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet with a few isolated unsettled periods resisted over Belgium. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible isolated unsettled periods. Quiet to active conditions with likely minor storm levels and possible isolated moderate storms can be expected with the anticipated high speed stream arrival on Dec 31st and Jan 1st.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 070, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	087 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page