Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 January 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Jan 02 1241 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Jan 2024	136	005
03 Jan 2024	130	019
04 Jan 2024	136	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M4.7-flare, with peak time 12:20 UTC on January 01, associated with NOAA AR 3536 (beta-gamma- delta). There are currently 3 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3536 is the most active and magnetically complex region on disk and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3534 (beta) has decreased in size and remained inactive. NOAA AR 3537 (beta) has emerged on the north-west quadrant of the Sun. A small unnumbered active region has emerged near the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with M-class flares expected and X-class flares possible.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)s, have been observed in the last 24 hours. Further analysis of the two CMEs seen in LASCO C2 data one at 09:48 UTC on December 31, with an estimated speed of around 500 km/s shows a possible glancing blow late on January 03 and the second seen at 22:00 UTC on December 31, with an estimated speed of around 1600 km/s shows a possible glancing blow early on January 02.

Solar wind

In the last 24 hours, the Earth came under the influence a high-speed stream associated with a negative polarity coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on January 01. The solar wind speed jumped from around 360 km/s to around 420 km/s at 01:24 UTC on January 02. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 5 nT to 12 nT, with a minimum Bz value of -11 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. The solar wind conditions in the next 24 hours are expected to become disturbed due to multiple glancing blow CME arrivals.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were active globally and locally (Kp 4 and K Bel 4). Active to minor storm conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remains enhanced but did not cross the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 068, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	057 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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