Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 January 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Jan 03 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Jan 2024	146	013
04 Jan 2024	148	012
05 Jan 2024	150	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.1-flare, with peak time 18:30 UTC on January 02, associated with NOAA AR 3536 (beta-gamma). There are currently 3 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3536 is the most active and magnetically complex region on disk and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3534 (beta) has decreased in size and remained inactive. NOAA AR 3537 (beta) was stable and produced some minor C-flares. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with M-class flares expected and X-class flares possible.

Coronal mass ejections

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected in LASCO C2 data one at 11:12 UTC on January 02, it was directed towards the west and originated from the backside of the Sun. No impact is expected at Earth.

Solar wind

Solar wind parameters show the arrival of a shock at 04:50 on January 03 with solar wind speed jumping from 410 km/s to 460 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field jumping from 7nT to 12 nT. This shock is likely associated with the arrival of the CME detected at 22:00 UTC on December 31, in LASCO C2 data which was associated with an X5.0-flare. Over the entire last 24 hours’ period, the Bz reached a minimum value of -6 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). In the next 24 hours, the solar wind parameters are expected to return to slow solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were active globally and locally (Kp 4 and K Bel 4). Quiet to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remains enhanced and is expected to cross the 10 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 060, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania	077
10cm solar flux	142
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	065 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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