Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 January 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Jan 04 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Jan 2024	138	013
05 Jan 2024	134	014
06 Jan 2024	130	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M3.8-flare, with peak time 01:55 UTC on January 04, associated with NOAA AR 3536 (beta-gamma). There are currently 4 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3536 is the most active and magnetically complex region on disk and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3534 (beta) and NOAA AR 3537 (beta) were stable and produced some minor C-flares. NOAA AR 3538 (beta) has emerged on the solar disk in the north- east quadrant. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a low chance for an isolated X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected in LASCO C2 data one at 02:48 UTC on January 03, it was directed towards the west and originated from the backside of the Sun. No impact is expected at Earth.

Coronal holes

A positive polarity coronal hole has started to pass the central meridian.

Solar wind

Solar wind parameters show the arrival of a shock at 14:25 on January 03 with the magnetic field jumping from 5 to 10 nT, and the solar wind speed jumped from 420 to 450 km/s and then more gradually increased to 480 km/s. It is not clear which of the events from the past days is responsible for this shock arrival. Over the entire past 24 hours’ period, the Bz reached a minimum value of -8 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind parameters are expected to return to slow solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally unsettled (Kp 3) and locally active (K Bel 4). Quiet to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux crossed the 10 pfu threshold level at 20:00 UTC on January 03 and has remained above the threshold. In the absence of high flux flares from the Sun we expect the proton flux to decrease in the coming days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania	080
10cm solar flux	140
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	058 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page