Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 January 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Jan 31 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Jan 2024	132	013
01 Feb 2024	135	006
02 Feb 2024	140	004

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 3559) has now turned over the north-west limb but still contributed to the low-level flaring activity and produced the largest flare of the period, which was a C5.7 flare with peak time 17:39 UTC January 30. Catania sunspot group 54 (NOAA 3567) also produced multiple C-class flares. This region is one of the more complex regions on disk and showed signs of further flux emergence. Catania Sunspot group 52 (NOAA AR 3565) also produced low-level C-class flares. The remaining regions, Catania sunspot groups 50, 51 and 53 (NOAA Active Regions 3566, 3569 and 3568, respectively), were quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to decrease slightly and to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, isolated M-class flares remain possible.

Coronal mass ejections

No new Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Coronal holes

A small positive polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is beginning to cross the central meridian on January 31.

Solar wind

The solar wind speed remained slightly elevated, with values between 430 and 500 km/s, likely due to the week influence of the solar wind from the negative polarity coronal holes which crossed the central meridian on January 27. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 and 5nT. Bz ranged between -4 and +4nT. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected continue to be slightly enhanced on January 31, due to the ongoing weak influence of the solar wind from the negative polarity coronal holes and due to a possible ICME shock arrival. From February 01 the solar wind speed is expected to decrease.

Geomagnetism

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (local K Bel 1-3 and NOAA Kp 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled levels with active conditions may be possible on January 31 due to a possible ICME shock arrival.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continues to decrease and, although still elevated, remained below the 10pfu threshold. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease over the next 24 hours, with a possibility of another increase due to the possible shock arrival from the January 29 CME.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 102, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania	080
10cm solar flux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	074 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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