Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
17/0724Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan,
20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 385 km/s at 17/1740Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/1958Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Jan, 19 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (20 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 174 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 165/160/160 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 005/008-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/09/14 | X4.54 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/09/14 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/17 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| August 2024 | 215.5 +19 |
| September 2024 | 151.6 -63.9 |
| Last 30 days | 159.7 -53.2 |