Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/0330Z from Region 3541 (S20W77). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan,
19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 16/0636Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 16/0627Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/2326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 180 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 180/170/165 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 008/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Latest forum messages
Filaments and prominences 534AR 13901 116Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1249Strong far side CME 226AR 13903 1
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 156.1 +4.7 |