Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
20/0854Z from Region 3521 (N11E03). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec,
23 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 618 km/s at 19/2107Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/0027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/0050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 852 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Dec), quiet levels on
day two (22 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 195 Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 190/188/186 90 Day Mean 20 Dec 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 007/010-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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