Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 March 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
16/1635Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low on
days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 516 km/s at 16/0524Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at 16/0635Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 248 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 40% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 144 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 145/150/160 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |