Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 March 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/2155Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar,
20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 510 km/s at 16/2219Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 16/2100Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 219 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (20 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 151 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 155/160/162 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 005/005-006/005-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |