Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 April 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
13/0502Z from Region 3637 (S11E66). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr,
16 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 444 km/s at 13/1616Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/2346Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/0257Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 468 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (14 Apr, 15
Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 161 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 163/165/165 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 016/020-014/018-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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