Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 April 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
14/0232Z from Region 3637 (S12E53). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr,
17 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 582 km/s at 13/2317Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
14/0041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 484 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (16 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (17
Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 178 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 013/018-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Tuesday, 8 October 2024
Double X-flares, glancing blow possible
Latest forum messages
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |