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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
18/1919Z from Region 3615 (S12E62). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar,
21 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 420 km/s at 18/0821Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
18/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
18/2007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 355 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet to minor storm
levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 177 Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 170/170/168 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 006/005-014/018-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 65% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |