Viewing archive of Friday, 10 May 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at
10/0654Z from Region 3664 (S17W48). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high on
days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 754 km/s at 10/1917Z. Total IMF
reached 52 nT at 10/1745Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-46 nT at 10/1740Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 206 pfu at 10/1745Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 176 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (11 May), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (12 May) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (13 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(11 May), are expected to cross threshold on day two (12 May) and are
likely to cross threshold on day three (13 May).
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| Class M | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| Class X | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Proton | 99% | 75% | 60% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 223 Predicted 11 May-13 May 225/220/220 90 Day Mean 10 May 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 085/097 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 064/090-020/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 25% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 95% | 79% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |