Viewing archive of Friday, 10 May 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 May 10 1301 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

X-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Solar protons

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 May 2024	235	051
11 May 2024	236	119
12 May 2024	237	043

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at high levels with several M-class flares and two X-class flares during the last 24 hours. The strongest reported flare was GOES X4.0 flare which peaked at 06:54 UTC on May 10, produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3664. During the flare, source region (AR 3664) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at high to very high levels over the next 24 hours possibly with M-class flares and chance for X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 07:12 UTC on May 10. This CME is associated with a X4.0 flare, which peaked at 06:54 UTC, produced by NOAA AR 3664. Associated type II and type IV radio emissions were detected at 06:46 UTC and 06:51 UTC, respectively. This CME has a projected speed of about 694 km/s (as measured by the Cactus tool). The corresponding ICME is expected to impact the Earth on May 12.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours, interplanetary magnetic field was slightly disturbed. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -6 and 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 0 nT to 7 nT. The solar wind speed ranged from 450 km/s to 370 km/s. Enhanced solar wind parameters associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) arrival are expected as multiple CMEs associated with flaring activity from NOAA AR 3664, observed on May 08-09, possibly impact Earth late on May 10 or May 11.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). In the next 24 hours, moderate to severe storm conditions (K 6 to 8) are expected as multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with flaring activity from NOAA AR 3664, observed on May 08-09, possibly impact Earth late on May 10 or May 11.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux started to increase around 11:00 UTC on May 09, associated with coronal mass ejections and flaring activities from NOAA AR 3664. It is increasing but still remains below the 10 pfu threshold level. In the next 24 hours, it may possibly cross the threshold level.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 166, based on 24 stations.

Solar indices for 09 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	233
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	171 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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