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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 09/0913Z from Region 3664 (S19W34). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be high on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 09/0019Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/1816Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 199 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 May), active to severe storm levels on day two (11 May) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (12 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
Class M95%95%95%
Class X60%60%60%
Proton50%50%50%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 May 233
  Predicted   10 May-12 May 230/225/220
  90 Day Mean        09 May 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  010/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 May  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  016/025-072/090-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%25%
Minor storm30%35%40%
Major-severe storm10%50%25%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%01%05%
Minor storm25%10%15%
Major-severe storm65%90%79%

All times in UTC

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