Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 May 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
08/0141Z from Region 3663 (N26W70). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be high on
days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 08/0256Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 May), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (10 May) and minor storm to major storm levels
on day three (11 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).
III. Event Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| Class M | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| Class X | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 227 Predicted 09 May-11 May 225/225/220 90 Day Mean 08 May 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 010/012-026/037-035/050
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 65% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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