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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
24/0218Z from Region 3615 (S13W14). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26
Mar, 27 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 887 km/s at 24/2035Z. Total
IMF reached 33 nT at 24/1607Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -26 nT at 24/1510Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 724 pfu at 24/1235Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 115 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (25 Mar), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (26 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (27
Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (25 Mar), are
likely to cross threshold on day two (26 Mar) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (27 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| Class M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 99% | 70% | 50% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 195 Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 200/205/210 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 025/033 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 034/070 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 031/050-020/022-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 90% | 65% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/23 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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