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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 20/1706Z from Region 3645 (S09W20). There are currently 14 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr, 23 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 20/0553Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 19/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (21 Apr, 23 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr, 23 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Apr 210
  Predicted   21 Apr-23 Apr 210/205/200
  90 Day Mean        20 Apr 161

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr  021/046
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Apr  007/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr  011/012-008/008-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%35%
Minor storm15%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm50%25%50%

All times in UTC

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