Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 April 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Apr,
04 Apr, 05 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 520 km/s at 01/2104Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 01/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
02/1641Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 207 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Apr) and quiet to minor
storm levels on days two and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 113 Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 115/115/120 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 009/012-014/018-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |